There are a lot of members within the cryptocurrency industry who have tried to predict the price of digital assets like Bitcoin Core (BTC). Furthermore, there are also a ton of bigwig Wall Street types who also try to predict the price of cryptocurrencies — While some of their BTC forecasts predict the currency’s value will drop to zero, a few of them believe it will be $25-100K per coin by the end of 2018. Then there are organizations who use software and data analysis to predict the price of digital currencies and one research firm, Trefis Technologies, believes its year-end price prediction for BTC ($12,500 USD) will be accurate based on prior analysis.
Trefis Research Drop’s its Year-End Price Prediction Due to Data Based on Active Users and Daily Transaction Values
Trefis Technologies is a firm that uses data and analytics to measure risk, create a system of records, and forecast market trends. This week Trefis has updated its Bitcoin Core (BTC) price prediction that’s based on data aggregated from the number of active bitcoin users and daily transaction values. According to the company’s June research notes, the prediction has dropped around 17 percent from $15,000 per BTC to around $12,500 by year-end. The research firm Trefis also believes the current global regulatory climate towards cryptocurrencies has been affecting the overall value of BTC. The June analysis states:
The global cryptocurrency industry has seen a flurry of new developments since December. Many of these developments had a negative impact on the growth prospects of cryptocurrencies, like restrictions by banks on the use of credit cards to buy cryptocurrencies, and calls by financial regulators across the world for caution while investing in digital currencies.
The Trefis system or the ‘Bitcoin Price Estimator’ claims to be extremely accurate when it comes to trends and market forecasts. The company says while backtesting the Trefis Estimator for average monthly BTC prices the system had shown an accuracy rate of 94 percent.
Trefis has updated it’s BTC prediction due to active users and daily transaction values. The firm’s prior forecast was $15,000 USD per BTC by the year-end but data has changed their prediction to $12,500 instead.
Other Crypto-Price Predicting Software Oracles
Trefis is not the only cryptocurrency price estimator on the internet-block, as there are a few other online services that aim to predict prices at the end of 2018, and even five years out. Another web portal called Wallet Investor also uses analytics to forecast the price of a variety of different digital assets. For instance, the prediction site details that Ethereum (ETH) will spike to $1,221 by the year’s end and in five years the website guesses that the price will be $3,900 per ETH. The same web portal predicts the overall value of Bitcoin Cash (BCH) in one year, and estimates show the site anticipates the BCH value per coin will be $1922. In five years Wallet Investor shows a BCH price increase of around $5949.
Wallet Investor predicts multiple cryptocurrencies over one year and five-year forecasts. The chart above represents the websites prediction for Bitcoin Cash (BCH) for one year ($1,922) and five years ($5,949).
The forecast for the popular ‘bank coin’ Ripple (XRP) sees its price jumping to $1.37 per token and the XRP five year prediction is only $4.60. These data prediction sites like Trefis Technology and Wallet Investor, show far more conservative projections than the number of investors predicting BTC will be $25K or higher by the year’s end. Moreover, some people may find that actual data may provide better estimates than some big shot venture capitalist who is merely guessing to cause media attention towards themselves.
What do you think about these websites that use aggregated data to forecast the price of cryptocurrencies in one year? Do you think these systems are as accurate as they claim? Let us know your thoughts on this subject in the comment section below.
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Images via Shutterstock, Wallet Investor, and Trefis Technologies.
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