SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 PM CST Wed Jan 09 2019
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
A few thunderstorms are possible, mainly across a portion of the
southern Plains and southwest California Friday, but no severe
weather is expected.
Winds will veer to southerly over the western Gulf early Friday in
wake of a large area of high pressure moving through the eastern
states. Modifying continental polar air will advect inland with
dewpoints increasing to low 60s F near the TX coast and 50s farther
inland beneath modest mid-level lapse rates, resulting in weak
(200-400 J/kg) MUCAPE. Showers and a few thunderstorms will likely
be ongoing over west TX within zone of ascent along conveyor belt
downstream from a progressive shortwave trough. This activity will
spread through TX and OK during the day, reaching the lower MS
Valley Friday night. Other thunderstorms might also develop closer
to the vorticity maximum across northwest TX during the evening
where steeper mid-level lapse rates will exist. The convection
should remain elevated above a stable surface layer which, in
addition to weak instability, should limit any severe threat.
Steep mid-level lapse rates will spread inland Friday night in
association with cold air attending a progressive shortwave trough.
Pre-frontal band of convection will likely develop and move onshore
late in the period when thermal profiles may become sufficient for a
few thunderstorms embedded within a general area of showers.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...